Tag: bonds

Do we see two Fed rate cuts through the end of the year? My guess? Yes we do.

Over the past few years, yields on 10-year Treasuries rose. So too did mortgage rates. Those higher yields…benefitting investors who purchased Treasury bonds. By way of higher earned interest income. Yet these higher bond yields functioned as a “tax” on home buyers. Driving up the cost of homeownership. Due to higher mortgage rates. Due to higher monthly mortgage payments. Arguably, having the same effect as a “consumer tax” placed upon homeownership.

Remember, during this recent environment of increased – and increasing – bond yields, coupled to elevated mortgage rates, home prices rose. Home prices did not go down. Housing inflation got worse: 1) higher home prices, and 2) higher interest rates.

As monthly mortgage payments rose for home buyers as a result of higher mortgage rates (coupled to increasing home prices), what simultaneously so too did rise were earned income opportunities for bondholders. Bondholders benefitted…at the expense of home buyers.


If the Fed does indeed enact two rate cuts through the end of 2024, mortgage rates are likely to drop. As too will yields bondholders attain, through their purchase of newly-issued 10-year Treasuries.

A trade-off is in the making. A much-welcomed rebalancing.

What’s behind mortgage rates?

When there is an elevated level of demand for 10-year Treasury notes, investor bids for the notes would most likely come in at or above a bond’s face value. These higher offer prices for bonds drive bond yields down. This is so due to investors’ willingness to accept lower coupon rates for bonds in exchange for the de-facto loans they are making to the United States government by way of their purchase of 10-year Treasuries.

When investors determine that there is market volatility, investors may be inclined to accept lower yields on their “loans” to the United States government. An investor’s determination of a “volatile” market could lead the investor to arrive at their conclusion that government bonds are a safe place to park their money, as compared to other available investment vehicles they have available to select from (i.e.: the stock market).